Luckyblind's Poker Blog

Random thoughts and reports from a relative Poker newbie.

Location: Drogheda, Ireland

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Thursday, January 20, 2005

The right fold is the wrong fold

As well as the Turbo STT I have played a couple of $10 MTT on Pokerstars over the last couple of nights. I was running well in both until similar situations occured. Both times until I saw my opponents cards I thought I had made a good fold when in fact I would have won massive pots that would have put me in or very near the chip lead.

Firstly was a $10 Rebuy and first paid approx $5000. I had got to the last 130/515 and was comfortably above average with over 30,000 chips. I had not rebought and only added on. There were two stacks on the table bigger than mine. One was immediately to my left and one opposite me. In my small blind I picked up K10 of clubs and it had been called by the big stack opposite and I called, the other big stack let us see a flop. At this stage blinds were 1000,2000 with a 100 ante so there was 7000 in the pot. Flop comes 3 8 10 with two spades. Not wanting to mess about I led out with a pot sized bet. Big blind immediately moves in and without hesitation the other large stack moves in as well ! I figure at least one of them has a set or A10 at least, one is most probably drawing to the flush. Well I was right about one thing, there was a flush draw - Q high ? and pocket nines ? The nines held up and I was gutted to have missed out. A few hands later I flop TPTK with A10 also holding nut flush draw and move in only to be called by a set which held up.....

Secondly was a $10 Freezeout and we are down to 30 from 1080. First pays $2700 and I am just below average chips. Blinds are 1500,3000 with 150 ante. I have picked up QQ in the BB. Then UTG moves in for 40,000, table chip leader re-raises in for 80,000 and then SB puts his 40,000 in the middle. QQ cannot be good here ? I never thought about the pot odds of over 3:1, I just assumed there was no way I could be ahead and folded to wait for a better spot. What did they have ? First player A3 offsuit, Chip leader JJ and the third player had called two All in's with AJ offsuit ! Unbelievably the ladies would have been a preflop 65% favourite in 4 way pot before the flop. To rub salt into the wounds a Q appeared on the flop and I am left wondering how I would have got on with a massive chip lead with 28 to go ! My next big blind I get A10 and see a flop of A103 and find out I am up against pocket 3's. At least I got $50 back in this one....

As far as the Turbo's go I have played 25 of each of the $55 and $25 versions. I am up $50 for the $25's and down $100 for the $50's. Even though I am not really winning in these I am sure I can beat them when the cards even out. So far 20 of my exits in mostly 4th & 5th place are when I am better than 4:1 preflop, yet not once have I outdrawn I higher pair myself when All in preflop. Reading The Camel's blog, the general opinion is that these are the best for regular profit but everybody finds them boring. I just find them frustrating at the moment !

I have also qualified for the French EPT final quailifier on Saturday night, we had planned to go out for drinks so I will have to stay sober and go home at 11pm to play. Whilst on the EPT, I am not sure if anyone who reads this blog is likely to pay the €10,000 entry to the Monte Carlo Millions, but if there is anyone then buy in direct through Pokerstars. They are only charging $12,300 which at the current rate is only €9389, not a bad saving !